Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,096$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,079.4}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,079.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(96.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $528$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,317$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,891.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26,891.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,679$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,038.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,038.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,633$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,847$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,600.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,600.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $211$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216.7}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(216.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,604$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,254$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(371 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,641.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,641.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $230$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.6}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(276.6\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,024$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,721$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,963.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,963.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $484$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(55.7 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{472.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(472.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,054$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(335 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 23.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $72$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,906$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,647.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(51,647.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,844$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(471 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,983.0}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,983.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,753$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $187,842$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,229.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(199,229.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,520$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,587.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,587.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $158,421$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $210,717$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,186.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(207,186.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,884$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,504.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,504.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,179$ on 2020-05-03
